What I am reading today (22 Mar 2017)

  1. Populism at its highest since the 1930s: Bridgewater
  2. The correlation between Dollar and bonds…does not exist! Price Action Lab
  3. The spell’s broken…now what? Almanac Trader
  4. What can we expect from the S&P over the next decade…not too much! Black Cypress Capital
  5. The tax reform and inverted priorities: The Big Picture
  6. Where might the big money go…if not exit! Market Watch
  7. If you ask when…the trigger just might end up being this: CNBC
  8. No decoupling in Asian equities…as goes the S&P! Bloomberg
  9. Are Emerging Markets cheap vs the US…definitely! ETF
  10. Vanguard is killing it…or is it now? Forbes

What Just Happened?

Finally…and yet it feels like everyone had been waiting for it to happen. A 1% drop in the S&P breaking the 110 day streak! Still a surprise despite most investors believing that equities are overvalued? (Record number of investors believe so – CNBC) What about the animal spirits? What about the passive flows? Has the market topped? Dow’s black candle today has caught attention for sure! (The Black Candle: The Reformed Broker)

All we needed for the rally to falter was “reasonable doubt” and that is exactly what the investors got. The Trump stuff isn’t as easy to be cast in stone as was believed, only the market has just begun to realize that. For the S&P to move higher into 2017, hard data needs to support the animal spirits (See America’s Confidence Economy: Project Syndicate). There are no signs of that yet…and with the Fed hell bent on tightening rates, it seems to be only a matter of time.

So, where does one hide if one’s worst fears come true? It is better to advise caution given the sharp run-up in the markets of late (see James Investment Research). But then, what could one buy today if holding cash is not an option? What about the long standing safe havens? Should one buy Gold…or bonds? (Price Action Lab has an interesting take on this). Interestingly, it might be worth looking at the US Energy Sector – it does look oversold (see Knowledge Leaders Capital).

But what if one doesn’t believe there is going to be a crash but stagnation here on? Should one look overseas for excess returns in that case? One can’t blame an American investor continuing to stick to her home turf though. S&P’s stellar returns over the last century have continued to justify a domestic bias. But is America really an exception when it comes to returns? Will the past returns be a true indicator of future performance or has the US just been lucky and is peaking out today? (see Warning: The US market is an anomaly – Project Syndicate). Maybe, just maybe, it will be the shrinking number of US companies that will make investors look abroad (see Bloomberg‘s view on this).

For the permabulls, it is a time for reckoning. For the rest of us, these are interesting times for sure…after the dearth of volatility for far too long!

What I am Reading Today (21 Mar 2017)

  1. The Black Candle: The Reformed Broker
  2. Goldman’s own Robo-advisor: Dealbreaker
  3. Is the US market an exception? Alpha Architect
  4. Technical analysis…are you as good as you think? Price Action Lab
  5. Don’t overlook the small ETF issuers: ETF
  6. Bonds in a bear market: Bloomberg
  7. ESG is crossing over to being mainstream: CFA Blog
  8. So how many believe the market is overvalued…it’s a record! CNBC
  9. Technically speaking: Real Investment Advice
  10. US Energy Sector…oversold? Knowledge Leaders Capital

 

What I am reading today (20 Mar 2017)

  1. Google trends on investor sentiment! The Reformed Broker
  2. 2016 Performance Chart (Updated): A Wealth of Common Sense
  3. Pre-Ordering Coffee: Not such a great idea: FT
  4. One for the gradual improvements over the years: The Irrelevant Investor
  5. So, what about overseas? Bloomberg
  6. No point protesting transparency! CFA Blog
  7. Hard data needs to support intentions: Project Syndicate
  8. Oil is falling…again! Fortune
  9. Noise vs Real Change: BMO
  10. Political Uncertainty, Weak Oil and yet S&P grinds higher: Alpha Sources

What I am reading today (16 March 2017)

  1. Federal Budget 2018…Big Boost for Defence, EPA and State Departments bear the brunt! The Washington post
  2. Which one’s a better hedge if the market crashes…Gold or Treasury bonds? Price Action Lab
  3. One on the Dutch elections…No to White Nationalism. Bloomberg
  4. I wish I knew these back in college. A Wealth of Common Sense
  5. So the Fed hiked rates…now what? Bloomberg
  6. Match the maturities…now! The Big Picture
  7. Where is the bait for investors?…IPOs! ETF
  8. The irresistible European Bank Bonds: ABGlobal
  9. When everyone’s a contrarian, we should know the types! The Irrelevant Investor
  10. The rate of Americans quitting jobs highest in 16 years. Yahoo Finance

What I am reading today (15 Mar 2017)

  1. Rising Interest rates and the homebuilders! The Reformed Broker
  2. Who’s the President…Who cares? A Wealth of Common Sense
  3. Why not invest in Africa! CFA Blog
  4. Fed Hike = Bad News, says Goldman. Fortune
  5. Exercise caution post the stellar run-up. James Investment Research
  6. It is not always beneficial to amass more information: Pragcap
  7. High yields don’t always yield high returns. White Coat Investor
  8. Guess who rules the US demographic: the 26 year olds! The Big Picture
  9. Buffet and airlines: LA Times
  10. India…Asia’s most expensive! Bloomberg

What I am reading today (14 Mar 2017)

  1. One in favor of the buy side analysts: CFA Institute
  2. So is it surprising that they are cutting back on external research? Bloomberg
  3. Europe and the glaring uncertainty: Reuters
  4. What the Fed rate hike means, especially if you are a borrower: CNBC
  5. Volatility vs Consistency: The Big Picture
  6. How to navigate the market extremes: Smead Capital
  7. The Best 6 vs the Worst 6…months! Almanac Trader
  8. “Absolute Strength Momentum and Trend Following”: 
  9. Estimating future returns in stocks: Aleph Blog
  10. The hedge fund fee structure overhaul: Value Walk

What I have been reading (13 Mar 2017)

  1. When no one knows what to do: A Wealth of Common Sense
  2. Buy Europe, says MS: Value Walk
  3. Some history lessons on Nasdaq’s anniversary: The Irrelevant Investor
  4. Another one on the latest jobs data: The Big Picture
  5. Implications of South Korea’s Presidential impeachment: Franklin Templeton
  6. Before the FOMC meet and after: Almanac Trader
  7. A Q&A with Peter Zeihan: Gavekal Capital
  8. Fed and the correlation between stocks and bonds: Mr Zepczynski
  9. S&P vs other major asset classes: Alpha Sources
  10. Oil meanwhile is looking vulnerable…but don’t give up just yet: Barrons

The Best of…

…what I have been reading today (09 March 2017)

  1. WTI crashes below 50…what about the S&P? The Reformed Broker
  2. Deutsche Bank’s Institutional Survey and the Hedge Funds: Value Walk
  3. How long do we dance? Yardeni Research
  4. Does Politics matter? Sometimes… CFA Blogs
  5. The two Pharma Stocks to buy! Institutional Investor
  6. We are all walking a fine line! Janus Capital
  7. “High Prices, Low Volatility” – Royce Funds
  8. Don’t expect a bear market. Nasdaq
  9. UK Budget…as expected! PIMCO

The Best of…

…what I have been reading today (08 March 2017)

  1. The case for buying commodities: US Global Investors
  2. What if it is the beginning and not the end? The Reformed Broker
  3. SNAP and the ISS: CFA Blog
  4. What the hell is going on? Market Oracle
  5. How long will it last? The Irrelevant Investor
  6. The 75% rate for March Jobs Report: Almanac Trader
  7. Is Volatility a risk? Cordant Wealth
  8. SNAP: Betting on the image! NYTimes
  9. The rebranding of PIMCO: Deal Breaker